Thoughts on the Top Four

Driving in this morning I had a couple of thoughts on my mind. First off I was wondering how Minneapolis suddenly turned into Seattle and whether or not it was going to rain every day for the rest of my life. Then I thought about how my grass sure wasn't going to stop growing and I have to mow 2 acres prior to leaving for the east coast on Monday. Interesting stuff I know. Thankfully I was listening to The Guardian podcast which took my mind off of the horrid rain and onto the beautiful game. I'm an occasional listener to James Richardson and the crew but do respect their opinions but was a bit surprised by the fact they picked Liverpool to win the Premier League. The Reds plight aside it piqued my curiosity when Barry Glendenning confidently stated that Manchester United, off their Burnley defeat, is the top four club that could potentially fall out of the top four. It's a compelling argument and warrants a post-- even if I don't necessarily agree. Here are some thoughts on the top four after a week of action.

United will not fall out of the top four

I just can't see what Mr. Glendenning alluded to happening. Turf Moor isn't going to be an easy place to play for anyone, especially not during their first home match after decades out of the top flight against a club they haven't beaten in 33 years. Early on teams can get by on emotion but they can't keep that emotional intensity up for a 9 month EPL season. United also missed a penalty and had an offsides called on Michael Owen that was questionable at best. We also have to remember that they started last season slow, 5 out of their first 12 points, but still finished top the league. The rubber is going to hit the road for united in the next three matches. Tomorrow they travel just down the road to Wigan to take on a Latics club that easily handled Aston Villa on the weekend but struggled against Wolves at home during the week. Following with Wigan match they host Arsenal and then travel to White Hart Lane to take on a very hot Spurs club. I expect a win versus Wigan but the other two matches are tough.

We'll have a good idea on their chances by mid-September. Provided Vidic returns healthy I think they'll manage a victory against Arsenal and a draw versus Tottenham, putting them in a relatively decent position. By then Fergie will have gotten a better hold of what he has from a squad/attacking perspective and the offensive plan should be a bit more fluid. I do expect big things from Berbatov this season and do see a solid partnership with Wayne Rooney, so I don't think the reports of their demise are in the cards but it's clearly going to be a struggle.

Liverpool will not win the title

Contrary to The Guardian predictions and even with their home thrashing of Stoke City, Liverpool will not win the title. Xabi Alonso is truly a unique player who did more for the Liverpool attack than most people realize. He was a gifted defensive minded midfielder who had an incredible ability to win the ball and help stop the attack. This didn't set him apart. What set him apart is his ability to pass the ball and initiate the attack after winning it. He incredible vision and ability to transition to the likes of Gerrard, Kuyt and Torres igniting endless Liverpool counter attacks. Liverpool is getting a gifted player in Aguiliani, but not the same type of player as Alonso-- not to mention someone with injury problems. The second factor that hampers Liverpool and why I don't seem them contending is their relative lack of depth compared to the likes of United and Arsenal. The young players, Lucas, Babel, etc just haven't reached the level they need to reach to provide the club with that extra option they need. If you lose any of the big three of Kuyt, Gerrard or Torres to injury Liverpool is in a dire situation-- as they are with their current defensive injuries. I think they'll finish third and could finish fourth.

Chelsea will be boring all season and may grind out the title

Chelsea will play like Chelsea. They won't be exciting like Arsenal but they will have a more consistent attack than United, combined with an ever stout defense. Ancellotti isn't quite Guus Hiddink but he's definitely not Felipe Scolari-- he'll keep the respect of the longer room and his diamond formation will be effective on European nights and when the weather turns. Chelsea will win the title not as much on dominance but more on consistency-- a lot like United last season. And we'll have a handful of their patented late game escapes as the likes of Drogs and Lamps turn 1-1 draws into 2-1 victories at the death.

Arsenal are the wildcard

It's easy to get excited by Arsenal, but aren't there always moments we get excited about Arsenal? When they are on they are fantastic and beautiful to watch. Last Saturday they were on. On Tuesday they did what few have been able to do, win at Parkhead on a European night. Defensively Thomas Vermaelen has looked fantatic and started a good early partnership with William Gallas. Offensively the played Everton off the pitch with Andrei Arshavin continuing his meteoric Premiership rise. Still the same old question marks are their for Arsenal. First, are they deep enough? With the loss of Adebayor can Eduardo be healthy enough to provide depth and is Carlos Vela ready for prime time? Finally when it turns to fall and winter in the EPL does Arsenal have the toughness and leadership for the extended Premier League grind while fighting for Champions League and FA Cup silverware? Most importantly perhaps, will they stay healthy? If they can answer yes to half of the questions above, or all, they're going to be contenders for the long haul. With the losses that Manchester United and Liverpool have suffered (Ronaldo and Alonso) they probably have moved a step closer to those two clubs as their young players have gotten a year older.

Does anyone else have a chance?

Not this year. Tottenham and Manchester City will contend but finish 5th and 6th. Both clubs will be stout at home but just inconsistent enough on the road to finish outside the top four. It won't be decided early though, I can see the fight for the last Champions League spot go into the last weekend of the season.

Premier League Recap! Missing Ronaldo already?

Two games in and isn't it obvious? For all the squad depth they have and all the confidence of Sir Alex it's pretty clear that Manchester United already misses Christiano Ronaldo, losing 1-0 at Turf Moor to Burnley today. Burnley! Sure United isn't the first big club to go up to Burnley and lose, as the Carling Cup showed last season, it's just how they lost today, for the first time in 33 years versus Burnley! In a match where they absolutely dominated the action and dominated possession they were missing one key ingredient-- some overly gelled up guy from Portugal with a tendency to bout and do Greg Louganis impressions. As a neutral I've seen this script play out endlessly over the past two years. United goes on the road and needs a big goal against a team playing ten men behind the ball. They turn to Ronaldo and he produces.

Point 1: Michael Carrick takes and misses a penalty. Come on. Would Ronaldo have missed that penalty? Owen Hargreaves can't get healthy fast enough if you're Alex Ferguson. With Lamps at Chelsea and Gerrard at Liverpool they need someone with a bit more confidence to step up there and rifle one in the back of the net.

Point 2: Following another unique United trait from the past couple of years they seem to generate a ton of chances but very little movement on the scoreboard. Create, create, create. Miss, miss, miss. To have such an abundance of shot opportunities but have only four actual shots on goal is a bit amazing and concerning all at the same time. The presence of Ronaldo, forcing defenses to account for him, would have surely produced at least one goal. They had thirteen corner attempts! And sure Burnley was playing a 10-0-0 at the end of the match, but do you blame them?

So what do we have?

We have a United club that just lost on the road to Burnley in their second match of the season. It's awful tight at the top and United needed to do to Burnley what Chelsea did to Sunderland yesterday, regroup from that early goal and go on to show the club who's boss. Unfortunately they had a keen inability to do just that. Beyond that doesn't it seem like United has a heck of a difficult time finishing? United is real adept at creating scoring chances and dominating possession but when it comes to actually finishing Sir Alex has to be a bit concerned. Nani and Valencia and Park are crafty and quick and create some exciting chances but are sorely lacking in the ability to get the ball on net.

In Other Action...

Tottenham heads up to Hull and completely play the Tigers off the pitch and continue the home misery of Phil Brown's boys with Jermaine Defoe going crazy and scoring a hat trick with Robbie Keane and Wilson Palacios chipping in. Can this actually be the year that they live up to all the hype? With a win already in hand versus Liverpool and the destruction of Hull showing they can win on the road the Spurs look like they're a lock for 5th or 6th and may even be in that Manchester City category of a club that could break the top four. After a derby versus West Ham and a home fixture versus Birmingham we'll find out real quick if they have the mustard with September matches at home versus Manchester United and at Stamford Bridge versus Chelsea. Old Harry may have a story developing here. They sure are fun to watch.

Over at Anfield Liverpool goes absolutely crazy on Stoke wiping away any memories of the Stoke upset from last year with a 4-0 thrashing. Their destruction buries my fantasy team once and for all this short week completing drubbing my fill in keeper Thomas Sorensen. Manchester United can take a little lesson from Liverpool in how to properly thrash an inferior team with an equal number of shot attempts (19) but a whole lot more shots on goal (13).

What does a couple of early season weekday matches tell us? Perhaps a lot, or perhaps not much at all. It'll be interesting to see how Manchester United react to this loss. Will it possess them to make a few more moves in the transfer market and perhaps spend some of that Ronaldo money? Of course the answer is no and of course they'll regroup and probably rip off 8 straight shutouts.

The joy of the EPL. Last weekend everyone though Liverpool was done, absolutely wiped. Now they wipe out Stoke and Manchester United are done! It's week two and we're all crazy. It's going to be a hell of a year.