US Mexico one day away- a prediction!

The moment of truth has arrived for the United States. The long anticipated Azteca Stadium qualifier is just over a day away. The team will arrive today from Miami spending just over twenty-four hours on Mexican soil prior to the matchup. If Uncle Sam is ever going to achieve a victory on Mexican soil now just may be the time. The two teams are at polar opposites-- the US at 12th in the latest FIFA rankings with Mexico falling to 30th. The US is also coming off the Confederations success against top ranked Spain. Unfortunately their also coming off the Gold Cup shellacking at the hands of a superior El Tri squad last month in Giants Stadium.

Take away the Gold Cup loss which beyond a mental boost for Mexico is of little consequence to the American squad since only two of the players from that game are on the US roster and only one potentially figures to be in the US side. The question is how much of a confidence booster will it be for Mexico? It could be a big one due to the fact that it was the first real strong international effort for Carlos Vela and Geovani Dos Santos, the two Mexican starlets.

So what's the rub? Five points.

1. Obviously one hell of a home field advantage. 105,000 extremely partisan fans with very little US support other than a handful of hardy travelers. The game will also be played at altitude in a highly polluted city. Mexico will have a clear advantage here.

2. If there is ever a time for the US to prevail, as noted before, it's now. Landon Donovan is at the top form of his career, as is Clint Dempsey. Jozy Altidore and Charlies Davies (If Bradley forgoes the urge to play Ching) form a young, fast and talented striking combo. The US is big and strong in defense and boast one of the top goaltenders in the world in Tim Howard. Howard hasn't lost to Mexico in five days, with a 3-0-2 record. Uncle Sam has already proven they can take down a top power on the world stage, now they have to take down a near unbeatable road opponent.

3. Which US team will show up? The one that beat Spain and Egypt in South Africa or the one that got shellacked in the second half by Brazil at the Confederations cup and destroyed in early June in Costa Rica. Unfortunately the Mexican match could very well follow the course of the Costa Rica match where the team falls behind early on the road and never gains their form.

4. Mexico will be without Rafael Marquez of Barcelona to help anchor the midfield. Sure Marquez doesn't always seem to play for country like he does for Barcelona, but he's an experiened player and a tough loss. They'll also have a largely young attack force with the likes of Vela and Dos Santos in the lineup.

5. Mexico really needs this one. A failure to qualify for the World Cup could be a disaster. The mood will be crazy, it will be hot and it will be tough for the US players to acclimate. None of this bodes well for a US victory.

Prediction?

I'd love to pick the US and feel they will be absolutely gigged for this match, but with all the climate and home field factors, combined with a desperate Mexican team I just can't see El Tri losing. I feel Bob Bradley will rightly play a conservative style with the end game in mind--- the US doesn't need a victory when a draw will suffice.

In the end I feel the US will have a strong effort. Landon Donovan will score and the defense will hold tight.

1-1 draw.

Kenny Cooper scores in German Debut

I got up relatively early (acclimating my body for next Saturday) to catch my very first Bundesliga 2 match between the powerful (I hope) TSV 1860 Munich and TUS Koblenz. I caught up to the match 20 minutes in with TSV 1860 up 1-0. I'm happy to report that the first goal for 1860 Munich of the new season was scored by the big American signee, Mr. Kenny Cooper. They're now up 2-0. In classic ITV fashion Sky Sports just switched from the 1860 Munich vs. TUS Koblenz match for a look into the Cottbus vs. Augsburg match, only to miss Benjamin Lauth score for 1860 Munich for the second goal. I'm still trying to get a highlight of the goal to see if it was a corker or a tap in.

Update: At the 71st minute mark Coop was just taken off to a warm ovation from the fans. Just prior to being taken off he had a near miss, coming down the left wing with the ball he attempted a cross which was deflected high and towards the net. In a nice bit of pace and hustle he beat the defender to the ball but wasn't able to get an accurate shot on goal from about a thigh high bounce. From the reaction of the crowd it's a good start in Germany for Kenny Cooper and a good start for the club. I'm no expert on Bundesliga 2 but I do know their opponent, TUS Koblenz did finish just above the relegation zone last season. With Lauth who scored fifteen goals last season and Cooper 1860 Munich may have a nice goal scoring combo to help drive them back towards the top flight, of which they were a founding member. Ten minutes left with a two goal advantage so they should hang on.

Here's a link to a video of Cooper's goal. A nice header by the 6'3" Cooper.

The reaction to his move to Germany was interesting, very mixed in the blogosphere and US soccer pundits. I've noted earlier that I think his move will be a plus for his career. Over at World Soccer Daily a couple of weeks back Kenny Hassan and Howard Rogers had a different view wondering why he would make a move to a second division club in Germany. In my opinion it makes sense for multiple reasons and really is a win win situation for him. He needed to get away from MLS but still get guaranteed playing time in a solid league. Sure he probably could have moved to a top flight European club but would playing time be guaranteed? As we've learned with Freddy Adu at Benfica and on loan at Monaco it's nice to have young US players at top flight clubs but if they're going to sit on the bench it's not going to help their development or help the US National team. The same can be said for Jozy Altidore. It was a great move to Villareal but he received very little playing time for the Yellow Submarine and then on loan.

As far as going to a second division club, what's really the difference between Cooper playing in the Bundesliga 2 and Charlie Davies playing at Hammarby in Sweden? The leagues are arguably comparable. Davies was able to get playing time and as a result is now a real player in the US rotation. For a club like 1860 Munich to spend a million dollars (up to 3 million) they're making a large investment. As a result he's probably going to get playing time. If he continues to impress like in his debut that playing time will be consistent.

This can only help Cooper. Maybe he contributes greatly to a move to the first division for his club. Or maybe he impresses enough to get a transfer to another club next season. More importantly he'll be getting playing time in a European league in the run up to the World Cup. I'm not alone among US soccer fans in hoping to see Cooper get more of a look with the national team. We can only go so far with Brian Ching. It would be nice to see Coop get in there with his unique skill set and compete for time with Jozy and Charlie Davies. He will soon be twenty-five. This may be his sole opportunity to play in a World Cup. He's in a good place to prove his worth to Bob Bradley.

US vs Mexico lineups and my love for ESPN360

A few random thoughts on the upcoming US vs Mexico super match while I watch Newcastle versus West Brom on the greatest invention in the history of the internet, ESPN 360. This past week when I was randomly gazing at the Comcast homepage and noticed that they had finally picked up ESPN360 I was like a kid a Christmas. It's incredible how ESPN has completely redeemed themselves in my mind over the past three months with there sudden and intense commitment to the beautiful game.

On to the US vs Mexico. Bob Bradley released his lineups and there aren't really any surprises. Some people are surprised to see Conor Casey getting the nod while others would have liked to see Kyle Beckerman get a chance. I was happy to see Stuart Holden get a deserving call up due to his recent strong play for the Dynamo and the US in the Gold Cup. As far as the lineups are concerned I think you'll see Bradley employ the same lineup he did for the Confederations Cup semi against Spain, something Grant Wahl also notes. This will include Jozy Altidore and Charlie Davies up front. I'm hoping he avoids the temptation to play Brian Ching.

Just when my excitement reached a palpaple point I was surprised to find out the match will be played at the absurd time of 3:00 PM. Nice move Mexico. I realize it's an advantage due to the crazy heat and smog from rush hour at that point, but it's also yet another nice jab at fans in the US. I'll be one of many now forced to miss the match due to an important business meeting. I'll surely run out after the meeting is done, check the Blackberry and probably see a 2-0 Mexico score line--- if history repeats itself. Of course Mexico can point to the February match in Columbus as an example of the US using climate to their advantage. At least that match was played at a time that everyone could see it. The other speculation on the match is the fact that the US is flying in just 24 hours before the match with no time to acclimate to the 7000 foot altitude. I'm not sure this could have been avoided with all the comittments the players have. Some experts feel it takes up to two weeks to actually get acclimated.

Prediction on the match? Clearly I'd like to see a US win. I don't think we'll get that but I am envisioning a draw. 1-1 I say. And no, I'm not willing to bet anything on that.

One more thing... for anyone so inclined there is a great two part podcast that BBC 5 live did on the plight of Newcastle this past Thursday. You can find it on the iTunes podcast listings.

Altidore Transfer Official and other US Notes

As speculated yesterday, Goal.com was right for a change, Hull City have their man and Jozy Altidore will be moving to the Premier League on a year long loan. Opinion on US message boards is mixed but all in all I think it's a good move for Altidore. The bare cupboard at Hull likely means that the 19-year-old will get immediate playing time in the best and deepest league in the world. Here's hoping he develops a nice combination with Geovanni, Ian Ashbee and Jimmy Bullard and hits the back of the net several times this season. Who knows, maybe Hull can recapture their early 2008 glory and make a run and not end up in the relegation zone as predicted by just about everyone, including me. One thing for sure I'll have yet another reason to check every game recap this season with Kenny Cooper in Germany and Jozy Altidore at Hull.

Speaking of Cooper, here's another take on his transfer from Greg Lalas of Sports Illustrated. I don't agree completely with Lalas but am in agreement that it's a gamble. I think it's a worthy gamble and I have a feeling that Cooper will prove himself with a one year spell in Munich and move up to first division club via transfer in January or next summer.

Finally, while we're on the subject of US National Team forwards here's some speculation by Ivan Galarcep on the roster for next week's mega-match in Mexico City. How excited am I about this match? I'll be in Milwaukee on business next week and called the hotel I stay at to make sure they'll have Univision so I can see the match. I'll post on my prediction closer to the match. Let's just say I have a good feeling about the US and their chances. As far as the US is concerned my only big hope is that they partner Altidore and Charlie Davies, avoiding Brian Ching at all costs. I realize he'll be trying to get immersed into his new team but I'd like to see Kenny Cooper get a call up. The other player I expect to see and am hoping to see is Stuart Holden. His boo boo against Everton aside Holden's form of late has been been fantastic and he deserves a roster spot.

Kenny Cooper on the way to Germany

I was in the woods of Northern Minnesota this weekend, out of the loop as far as the scene goes, save checking the Blackberry occasionally. As I scanned the MLS scores from yesterday I was surprised to see that FC Dallas had crushed KC to the tune of 6-0. I was even more surprised to see the name Cunningham on the score sheet four times but no Kenny Cooper. Mr. Cooper wasn't on the score sheet because he is on his way to the German second division to play for TSV 1860 Munich. You'll probably have the odd pundit who wonders why a player of Cooper's MLS pedigree would accept a move to a second division European club but when you sit down and think about it it makes sense.

Unlike players such as Jozy Altidore and Freddy Adu who've transferred to high profile European clubs and received very little first team football opportunity, Cooper will most likely get a solid amount of first team playing time. His style also seems like a perfect fit for the Bundesliga. Although the club has struggled in recent years they have a history of top flight German football and Cooper will get to ply his trade at a major market German club that shares Allianz Arena with Bayern Munchen. A couple of good possibilities could come out of this. Obviously the club could compete for promotion and Cooper could find himself in the Bundesliga next season. Or, a strong showing by Cooper could give him the opportunity to transfer to a first division club. I've always liked Kenny Cooper and I think he'll be a success over there. He'll play against some solid and organized competition as well, something that will be a positive for his US National Team aspiration. It's a good situation all around and a relative bargain for 1860 Munich, who paid a million up front on a transfer that could net a nice tidy 3 million for FC Dallas.

I guess I'll have a reason to follow the German second division this year.

Mexican B Team?

I think we can put to bed the notion that the team Mexico fielded in the Gold Cup final was a "B" team as we were endlessly told by pundit after pundit. As you can see here, 12 of the 20 players from the Gold Cup final will take part in the match at Azteca Stadium on August 12th. With Heath Pearce and potentially Brian Ching (unlikely) and Stewart Holden (maybe) on the bench the US will have 1 or 2 players on the roster for their "A" team. It's clear that Mexico took the match a lot more seriously than the United States, as I noted in a post yesterday. It makes me feel a bit better about the upcoming match but also still a bit concerned at the same time. Mexico will likely field the same attacking group of veterans and youngsters like Vela and Dos Santos--- and will be full of confidence as well as likely not be rusty at all since they just played several matches together. In the context of yesterday's El Tri squad release it's clear that the Gold Cup final was a Mexican A- team versus a US C+ team at best. It will be interesting to see how the young and talented Mexican attack holds up against the top US defensive pairing--- hopefully Guch doesn't display is slow and lacking AC Milan form.

AC Milan and Guch

Due to the World Football Challenge and Justin TV I've had the opportunity to see AC Milan play a good part of four preseason friendlies in the span of a week. My initial thought is, good god. My second thought is that it could be one heck of a long year. Granted they lost one of the top three players in the world and his absence is glaring. Even with Kaka now in Madrid I'm absolutely shocked at how mediocre they've looked.

All I can say is poor Oguchi Onyewu. I wanted to chalk up the misplay last week in Atlanta versus America of Mexico to jitters. One could also blame the early goal for Inter in Baltimore on Sunday to bad team defensive effort. But after watching Onyewu get torched again versus Bayern Munich today it's not looking good for Guch and for the status of American defenders abroad. A reputation is developed easily and not forgotten quickly. I can't imagine the anti-Guch comments on Italian message boards and in the media. If my three years of college Italian actually helped me learn the language I suppose I could have picked up Gazzetta della Sport myself and found out. I'm pulling for you Guch, I hope you turn it around. It's a big deal for American soccer that things work out in Italy for you.

Beyond our guy Guch I'm also pretty shocked at how mediocre Pato has looked. I didn't really start watching Serie A last year until the second half when Pato had Beckham and of course Kaka setting him up. He looked every bit the quality player worth the huge offer from Chelsea and Ancellotti. After watching him over the past week I'm not so sure. At this point he doesn't seem to have the ability to create his own space and score and with the absence of Kaka and the brilliant crosses of Becks he doesn't have anyone to set him up.

Still Pato can't be that high up on the worry list. Ronaldinho looks like he is absolutely done. He showed flashes of his crafty self in the states, only to lose the ball constantly and really create no legitimate scoring chances. At this point I wouldn't expect much from him either. There's a lot of quality names, too bad their all on the wrong and of twenty and pushing thirty, ala Clarence Seedorf.

It will be interesting to see if Leonardo is able to spend some money come August. With Juventus strongly upgraded and Eto'o on his way to Inter AC needs something to compete for fourth place.

Come on Guch!

Gold Cup Second Guesser

I typically take the side of Bob Bradley in just about any decision. Contrary to those who constantly want his head I feel he's done a fantastic job heading Uncle Sam and deserves the right to continue to helm the team into next year's world cup. That being said I just can't understand the decisions behind the Gold Cup roster in lieu of the Mexico throttling. Yes, it may be 20/20 hindsight and I do realize the same roster made it all the way to the final, but the 5-0 scoreline makes you wonder, what was the point?

One thing I'll never understand is the inclusion of players who will never play in a World Cup qualifier not to mention never get close to playing in the World Club. Players such as Jay Heaps, Davy Arnaud and Jommy Conrad. I can understand getting quality time for young players like Stuart Holden who have the ability to not only occupy a roster spot but get real quality playing time for the US in the future. It was pretty clear that even prior to the Gold Cup there was no way a player such as Heaps or Pause we're ever going to play a legitimate role in any US world cup run. This is coupled with the decision to send Charlie Davies, Jozy Altidore, Jonathon Bornstein, Freddy Adu, etc back to their clubs. The Gold Cup was the perfect opportunity to give the above mentioned players significant playing time in front of large crowds. The Gold Cup was a fantastic opportunity to play a B team...not a C- team.

Beyond the roster decisions the loss also gives El Tri some confident prior to the massive August 12 qualifier at Azteca Stadium. The US has a real opportunity to finally win in Mexico City. The confidence that Mexico gained with the Gold Cup drubbing doesn't help.

Oh, and one more thing. What is the point of Brian Ching? It's pretty obvious that with the development of Davies and Altidore that Ching is no longer a reality for the US first team. Why even give him a Gold Cup match? It was yet another opportunity to give Kenny Cooper some real playing time and assess him as a realistic option for the US first team. Instead Bradley chooses to continue with Ching and his horrible first touch. There were multiple opportunities on Sunday where Cooper may have had an opportunity to take a long ball and make something of it-- in situations where Ching clearly couldn't. By the time Cooper did come on it was clearly too late.