Wednesday, August 5, 2009

EPL- Can two promoted teams stay up?

Last year saw fast-starting (but slow finishing) Hull and consistent Stoke stave off immediate relegation and stay up for a second year in the top flight. Like clubs such as Reading have learned, it's often the second season in the top flight that is the most difficult. This season the dire financial situation in Portsmouth may provide an opening for at least one or two clubs to fight off relegation and pull a Stoke and stay up. Before getting into who I think will stay up it's important to look at the three teams that will go down.

1. Portsmouth: Unless there is a speedy fix to the ownership situation and the sale to UAE billionaire Sulaiman al-Fahim goes through allowing the club to make some last minute transfer deadline signings, the prospects do not bode well for Portsmouth. Such are the modern football times that a club like Portsmouth can go to competing for the Champions League and winning the FA Cup in 2008 to an absolute fire sale of epic proportions. If the of David Nugent goes through Portsmouth will have virtually liquidated anyone of value on their roster leaving a team that could potentially rival Derby County for lack of Premier League talent. It's going to be a painful year in the south of England-- Pompey are surely going down. You have to wonder why the UAE group would want any part of the club anyway. Fratton Park is obviously in need of an upgrade. It's the poorest of the top flight stadiums and just doesn't provide the capacity or revenue that the club needs. I'm curious why the ownership group didn't take a long look at Newcastle as an acquisition.

2. Hull: I can't see Hull surviving another year. They haven't upgraded their squad at all, and they struggled mightily the entire second half of last season-- you can't expect them to get much better considering the fact they haven't acquired anybody. Up front they are in an absolute dire situation. The loan of Jozy Altidore would be nice from a US fan standpoint but you can't expect him to light the world on fire immediately. Jimmy Bullard, the big January pickup, is still injured and likely out the first couple months of the season. To make things even worse their top defender Michael Turner is rumored to be going to Liverpool. You have to wonder if the antics of Phil Brown last season have hurt his ability to attract players. Right now they need all the help they can get.

3. Birmingham City: I think Birmingham will be sent right back down. I realize Alex McLeish has worked wonders in the past but I just don't see the talent on hand at Birmingham to keep the team afloat. The Barry Ferguson acquisition would have been nice three years ago but at this point he's probably too old and beat up--- I don't expect the Barry Ferguson of five years ago. Their best bet is to play the Stoke style, defend their home turf and keep things even on the road.

With the three clubs above going down it's obvious who's staying up, Wolves and Burnley. I really like what Owen Coyle has done at Burnley and at as the fall turns to winter they could very well have a Stoke City like home advantage, as victories over Arsenal and Fulham in the Carling Cup this past season can attest. All eyes will be on Stephen Fletcher as the sole big offseason acquisition. At Wolverhampton Mick McCarthy has put together a solid club with some real forward talent. In the end I don't expect either of these clubs to neccessarily lock up a top ten finish but in contrast to the three clubs listed above I do see them staying up.

No comments:

Post a Comment