US Mexico one day away- a prediction!

The moment of truth has arrived for the United States. The long anticipated Azteca Stadium qualifier is just over a day away. The team will arrive today from Miami spending just over twenty-four hours on Mexican soil prior to the matchup. If Uncle Sam is ever going to achieve a victory on Mexican soil now just may be the time. The two teams are at polar opposites-- the US at 12th in the latest FIFA rankings with Mexico falling to 30th. The US is also coming off the Confederations success against top ranked Spain. Unfortunately their also coming off the Gold Cup shellacking at the hands of a superior El Tri squad last month in Giants Stadium.

Take away the Gold Cup loss which beyond a mental boost for Mexico is of little consequence to the American squad since only two of the players from that game are on the US roster and only one potentially figures to be in the US side. The question is how much of a confidence booster will it be for Mexico? It could be a big one due to the fact that it was the first real strong international effort for Carlos Vela and Geovani Dos Santos, the two Mexican starlets.

So what's the rub? Five points.

1. Obviously one hell of a home field advantage. 105,000 extremely partisan fans with very little US support other than a handful of hardy travelers. The game will also be played at altitude in a highly polluted city. Mexico will have a clear advantage here.

2. If there is ever a time for the US to prevail, as noted before, it's now. Landon Donovan is at the top form of his career, as is Clint Dempsey. Jozy Altidore and Charlies Davies (If Bradley forgoes the urge to play Ching) form a young, fast and talented striking combo. The US is big and strong in defense and boast one of the top goaltenders in the world in Tim Howard. Howard hasn't lost to Mexico in five days, with a 3-0-2 record. Uncle Sam has already proven they can take down a top power on the world stage, now they have to take down a near unbeatable road opponent.

3. Which US team will show up? The one that beat Spain and Egypt in South Africa or the one that got shellacked in the second half by Brazil at the Confederations cup and destroyed in early June in Costa Rica. Unfortunately the Mexican match could very well follow the course of the Costa Rica match where the team falls behind early on the road and never gains their form.

4. Mexico will be without Rafael Marquez of Barcelona to help anchor the midfield. Sure Marquez doesn't always seem to play for country like he does for Barcelona, but he's an experiened player and a tough loss. They'll also have a largely young attack force with the likes of Vela and Dos Santos in the lineup.

5. Mexico really needs this one. A failure to qualify for the World Cup could be a disaster. The mood will be crazy, it will be hot and it will be tough for the US players to acclimate. None of this bodes well for a US victory.

Prediction?

I'd love to pick the US and feel they will be absolutely gigged for this match, but with all the climate and home field factors, combined with a desperate Mexican team I just can't see El Tri losing. I feel Bob Bradley will rightly play a conservative style with the end game in mind--- the US doesn't need a victory when a draw will suffice.

In the end I feel the US will have a strong effort. Landon Donovan will score and the defense will hold tight.

1-1 draw.