Thoughts on the Top Four

Driving in this morning I had a couple of thoughts on my mind. First off I was wondering how Minneapolis suddenly turned into Seattle and whether or not it was going to rain every day for the rest of my life. Then I thought about how my grass sure wasn't going to stop growing and I have to mow 2 acres prior to leaving for the east coast on Monday. Interesting stuff I know. Thankfully I was listening to The Guardian podcast which took my mind off of the horrid rain and onto the beautiful game. I'm an occasional listener to James Richardson and the crew but do respect their opinions but was a bit surprised by the fact they picked Liverpool to win the Premier League. The Reds plight aside it piqued my curiosity when Barry Glendenning confidently stated that Manchester United, off their Burnley defeat, is the top four club that could potentially fall out of the top four. It's a compelling argument and warrants a post-- even if I don't necessarily agree. Here are some thoughts on the top four after a week of action.

United will not fall out of the top four

I just can't see what Mr. Glendenning alluded to happening. Turf Moor isn't going to be an easy place to play for anyone, especially not during their first home match after decades out of the top flight against a club they haven't beaten in 33 years. Early on teams can get by on emotion but they can't keep that emotional intensity up for a 9 month EPL season. United also missed a penalty and had an offsides called on Michael Owen that was questionable at best. We also have to remember that they started last season slow, 5 out of their first 12 points, but still finished top the league. The rubber is going to hit the road for united in the next three matches. Tomorrow they travel just down the road to Wigan to take on a Latics club that easily handled Aston Villa on the weekend but struggled against Wolves at home during the week. Following with Wigan match they host Arsenal and then travel to White Hart Lane to take on a very hot Spurs club. I expect a win versus Wigan but the other two matches are tough.

We'll have a good idea on their chances by mid-September. Provided Vidic returns healthy I think they'll manage a victory against Arsenal and a draw versus Tottenham, putting them in a relatively decent position. By then Fergie will have gotten a better hold of what he has from a squad/attacking perspective and the offensive plan should be a bit more fluid. I do expect big things from Berbatov this season and do see a solid partnership with Wayne Rooney, so I don't think the reports of their demise are in the cards but it's clearly going to be a struggle.

Liverpool will not win the title

Contrary to The Guardian predictions and even with their home thrashing of Stoke City, Liverpool will not win the title. Xabi Alonso is truly a unique player who did more for the Liverpool attack than most people realize. He was a gifted defensive minded midfielder who had an incredible ability to win the ball and help stop the attack. This didn't set him apart. What set him apart is his ability to pass the ball and initiate the attack after winning it. He incredible vision and ability to transition to the likes of Gerrard, Kuyt and Torres igniting endless Liverpool counter attacks. Liverpool is getting a gifted player in Aguiliani, but not the same type of player as Alonso-- not to mention someone with injury problems. The second factor that hampers Liverpool and why I don't seem them contending is their relative lack of depth compared to the likes of United and Arsenal. The young players, Lucas, Babel, etc just haven't reached the level they need to reach to provide the club with that extra option they need. If you lose any of the big three of Kuyt, Gerrard or Torres to injury Liverpool is in a dire situation-- as they are with their current defensive injuries. I think they'll finish third and could finish fourth.

Chelsea will be boring all season and may grind out the title

Chelsea will play like Chelsea. They won't be exciting like Arsenal but they will have a more consistent attack than United, combined with an ever stout defense. Ancellotti isn't quite Guus Hiddink but he's definitely not Felipe Scolari-- he'll keep the respect of the longer room and his diamond formation will be effective on European nights and when the weather turns. Chelsea will win the title not as much on dominance but more on consistency-- a lot like United last season. And we'll have a handful of their patented late game escapes as the likes of Drogs and Lamps turn 1-1 draws into 2-1 victories at the death.

Arsenal are the wildcard

It's easy to get excited by Arsenal, but aren't there always moments we get excited about Arsenal? When they are on they are fantastic and beautiful to watch. Last Saturday they were on. On Tuesday they did what few have been able to do, win at Parkhead on a European night. Defensively Thomas Vermaelen has looked fantatic and started a good early partnership with William Gallas. Offensively the played Everton off the pitch with Andrei Arshavin continuing his meteoric Premiership rise. Still the same old question marks are their for Arsenal. First, are they deep enough? With the loss of Adebayor can Eduardo be healthy enough to provide depth and is Carlos Vela ready for prime time? Finally when it turns to fall and winter in the EPL does Arsenal have the toughness and leadership for the extended Premier League grind while fighting for Champions League and FA Cup silverware? Most importantly perhaps, will they stay healthy? If they can answer yes to half of the questions above, or all, they're going to be contenders for the long haul. With the losses that Manchester United and Liverpool have suffered (Ronaldo and Alonso) they probably have moved a step closer to those two clubs as their young players have gotten a year older.

Does anyone else have a chance?

Not this year. Tottenham and Manchester City will contend but finish 5th and 6th. Both clubs will be stout at home but just inconsistent enough on the road to finish outside the top four. It won't be decided early though, I can see the fight for the last Champions League spot go into the last weekend of the season.