US v Mexico recap: Is the US in a precarious position?

I'd like to provide a detailed report on yesterday's match but like I mentioned I was one of those American's not amused by the cheeky Mexican 3:00 PM start time and had to work. My 1-1 prediction came dangerously close to becoming true, unfortunately the constant Mexican pressure wore down the US defense and they scored the winner late. Did we really think the US was going to win in Mexico City?

While Mexico was celebrating their victory and interesting development happened down in Honduras as the host country demolished Costa Rica 4-0 to tighten up the region and keep Mexico in 4th place and the potential playoff with South America's 5th place finisher. The US is now in 3rd place on goal differential. This places all three countries vying for two spots and trying to avoid the playoff in a real precarious position. Let's take a look:

United States: Next month the US hosts El Salvador in Salt Lake which should be a victory. The same week they travel down to Trinidad and Tobago for a match that's increased in relevance with T and T's defeat of El Salvador yesterday. The US, playing a weakened squad, lost at T & T in the previous round of qualifying earlier this year. The rubber will meet the road for the US in October when they travel to Honduras and then host Costa Rica.

Honduras: The Hondurans have a clear path to securing qualification provided they maintain the form they showed yesterday. Next month they host T & T and then travel to Azteca Stadium to take on Mexico. If they can salvage a draw in Mexico they are in a very good position. In fact with October matches at home against the US and at El Salvador the Hondurans really only have to provide a result in one of the two big matches (US and Mexico) to secure World Cup status.

Mexico: If the Mexicans can manage a victory in Costa Rica next month, which is a tall task, they are set up nicely to not only qualify and avoid the playoff but potentially finish first or second in the region. After Costa Rica two of their final three matches are at home against Honduras and El Salvador, followed by a road trip to T & T who will surely be out of World Cup contention and may not have all of their European stars for that very reason.

What's the rub? If I were the US I'd be real worried here. The Mexicans have the easiest schedule and are a team with obvious momentum. Honduras is coming off a big victory and has a huge home fixture against the US looming. The US has winnable games but needs to get a result in two very big matches, at home versus Costa Rica and on the road in Honduras. If they can get a win and a draw in those two matches, without any other disappointments against T & T and El Salvador they'll be in a good position.

As a United States fan the last thing I want to see is the club forced into a playoff against Uruguay, Ecuador or (please no) Argentina. Unfortunately that could be the position we could find ourselves in. Let's say Mexico wins 3 of their final four matches, which is likely with their current momentum. That put's them on 18 points. If Honduras loses at Mexico but wins against T & T and El Salvador and then manages a draw against the US (a positive for Uncle Sam) they'd be on 17 points with a potential goal differential advantage on the US. Even with win against T & T and El Salvador the US still would need positive results at home versus Costa Rica and at Honduras. A win versus Costa Rica could cement things, as could a draw at Honduras.

The bottom line is that things have gotten a whole lot more interesting.